The science
The JUMP is based on recent independent research The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5 °C World and The Power of People. Some of its authors (as private individuals) are amongst those who started the JUMP. Its aim is to determine where and how global emissions must reduce to ensure global warming is kept to internationally agreed-upon levels of 1.5°C.
WHO’S BEHIND IT: The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5 °C World was a year long research project undertaken as a collaboration by three of world leading institutions. From academia; world renowned University of Leeds School of Earth and Environment. From the third sector; C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group representing almost 100 of the world’s biggest cities. From the private sector; global engineering consultancy, Arup.
IMPORTANT NOTE: While this research forms the basis for the seven shifts, the JUMP itself has been developed entirely independently of these three organisations, with no formal input, oversight or funding from any of them (but plenty of goodwill!).
HOW DID THEY DO IT: Global trade flow data was used by a sophisticated computer model to determine the GHG impact of all goods produced, transported and consumed around the world.
Projections were then made about future consumption growth and policy changes, then how this compares to the reductions needed to stay within 1.5 C carbon budgets.
This defines the necessary emissions reductions needed between now and 2030 and 2050. The analysis then explores key areas and sectors where leaders, businesses, and citizens can take rapid action to deliver these emissions reductions. This was done for different regions around the world.
FINDINGS: The findings are staggering. They say that:
A huge and immediate reduction is needed by people who have the finances to buy new things (beyond what they need): In the next decade, we need a 2/3 reduction in the impact of consumption in wealthy parts of the world. This will require a complete rethink of how our economies and lives work. At the same time rapidly developing economies must adopt sustainable consumption patterns as they continue to grow.
Individuals and communities are not powerless: There is significant potential for citizens and communities to cut consumption-based emissions in all these sectors except new buildings (where individuals have little power and most action is up to governments and businesses to lead). Food is most important (after buildings).
Government and business still have the largest role: Decarbonising electricity grids and the world’s supply chains remains hugely important.
New model for living and working needed: It is clear that some places in the world we currently think are most sustainable, particularly in the northern hemisphere, have extremely high impacts when we include the impact of their consumption. No place has cracked the model for the 21st century, where people are living how they will need to in the future. It is also true that even with all of the strong action outlined in this report, there will still be further savings needed, which will need to come from deeper changes to the system.
Failure to act is not an option: If we do nothing to reduce our consumption and reduce climate emissions (as is currently broadly the case globally), 1.6bn people will be exposed to extreme heat by 2050 and 2.5bn to severe food insecurity.
USE IN THE JUMP: based on the research, the following propositions serve as the founding evidence for the design of the JUMP:
Government and business maintain the biggest responsibility, and we should not dilute this fact, and instead continue to provide clarity on the changes needed such as green energy.
To ensure a 1.5 degree future there are 7 shifts (expanded from the UK Take the Jump campaign’s 6 shifts) that individuals and communities must make; these are the backbone of the JUMP
Five shifts taken directly from the conclusions as areas individuals and communities can act.
The system change shift is recognising that we need huge changes to the wider system far beyond individual action, yet individuals can do things here and there to change them.
There are no clear examples of what the future must look like so we need to figure it out ourselves. All possibilities exist, including one where we are all healthier, happier, and more connected to each other and the natural world.
We need a staggering pace of action now, and so we have taken the more ambitious of the two targets set out in the research for how far to go (all the numbers quoted in the Shifts are the “ambitious” rather than “progressive” targets.
The focus is on financially comfortable individuals and households, not everyone and not everywhere. The target levels are set as convergence points and for many, this is an increase. We must be clear that given there is inequality in consumption and wealth, there is inequality in responsibility.
